Where Is Hurricane Lowell Now: Tracking, Forecast Cone, and Risk

As of the most recent National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Hurricane Lowell's position, intensity, and track are published in the public advisory product for the eastern North Pacific, and that advisory is the only authoritative answer to where the storm is now. Because a tropical cyclone moves hundreds of miles in days, any fixed position printed in an article goes stale within hours. This explainer therefore teaches you how to read the live position, what the forecast cone actually means, and how to judge your own risk.

The advisory product is the source of truth

The NHC issues a complete package every six hours, at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m., and 8 p.m. Pacific time, with intermediate advisories at 5 a.m. and 5 p.m. Pacific when watches or warnings are active. Each package contains a public advisory, a forecast advisory, a discussion, a wind-speed probability product, and a track graphic. The public advisory opens with a line giving the storm's latitude and longitude, its distance and bearing from a named reference point, and its current maximum sustained winds.

That coordinate line is the answer to "where is it now." Latitude and longitude are precise to a tenth of a degree, roughly 7 miles. The bearing-and-distance line is easier to use: it tells you the storm sits, for example, a certain number of miles west-southwest of a port city. Read both. The coordinate tells you the true position. The reference line tells you whether the storm is approaching anything you care about.

Position is reported as the center of circulation, not the edge of the cloud shield. Tropical storm-force winds can extend 100 to 300 miles from the center in a large storm, and hurricane-force winds 30 to 60 miles. A storm "300 miles away" can still deliver tropical storm conditions to your coast. Treat the center position as the anchor of a much wider hazard field.

Why the reported position already lags reality

Every position in an advisory is a best estimate of where the center was at a stated time, not where it is when you read it. The NHC labels each advisory with a valid time, and forecasters interpolate between satellite passes, aircraft reconnaissance fixes, and scatterometer wind data. Between fixes, the true center may be 10 to 30 miles from the last reported point.

Geostationary satellites image the basin every 10 to 15 minutes, but a visible-light fix is impossible at night, so overnight positions lean on infrared imagery, microwave passes, and aircraft. Microwave imagers on polar-orbiting satellites see through high clouds to the low-level circulation, but they pass over a given storm only a few times a day. That is why the 2 a.m. advisory can look slightly different from the 8 p.m. one even when the storm is moving steadily.

Forecasters also distinguish the center from the point of maximum wind. In a sheared storm, the strongest winds can sit 20 to 40 miles downwind of the geometric center. A wind swath can therefore clip a coast even when the track line stays offshore. This is the professional caveat most thin explainers miss: the track is a line, but the hazard is an area offset from that line.

Forecast cone: what the shaded region means

The cone is not the storm's size and not the range of possible tracks for this one storm. It is drawn so that the actual center stays inside it roughly 60 to 70 percent of the time, based on the historical error of official forecasts over the past five years. The cone widens with time because forecast error grows with lead time. At 24 hours the typical track error is on the order of 40 to 50 miles. At 72 hours it is closer to 100 to 120 miles. At 120 hours it exceeds 170 miles.

Two consequences follow. First, a storm centered near the cone's edge at day four could still track well outside it, because 30 to 40 percent of forecasts miss the cone entirely. Second, the cone says nothing about where wind, rain, or surge will occur. NHC explicitly warns that hazard impacts occur outside the cone. Use the cone to judge uncertainty in the center track, and use separate wind, surge, and rainfall products to judge your exposure.

A closely related trap is comparing model spaghetti plots to the cone. The individual model tracks and the official cone answer different questions. Models show one plausible path each; the cone summarizes the historical spread of official forecasts. A model that runs far outside the cone is a signal to watch, not proof the cone is wrong. When models disagree sharply, forecast confidence is low and the cone's message is "prepare for a range, not a line."

Intensity versus track: two different forecasts

Track forecasts have improved steadily for decades. Intensity forecasts have improved more slowly, because a storm's peak winds depend on small-scale structure that global models cannot resolve. Eyewall replacement cycles, dry-air intrusions, and ocean eddy heat content can add or remove 20 to 40 mph in a day. A forecast of "category 1" therefore carries real uncertainty in both directions.

Vertical wind shear is the dominant control in the eastern Pacific. Shear above roughly 20 knots tilts and ventilates the core and weakens the storm. Warm sea-surface temperatures above about 79°F (26°C) supply the energy, and a deep warm layer resists the cooling that a storm's own upwelling causes. When Lowell moves over cooler water below that threshold or into strong shear, rapid weakening follows, sometimes within 24 hours.

Rapid intensification, a gain of at least 35 mph in 24 hours, is the hardest event to forecast. It happens in a small fraction of storms and is flagged in NHC discussions when conditions favor it. If an advisory mentions rapid intensification as a possibility, treat the intensity forecast as having a wide error bar and prepare for the higher end.

Comparison: which product answers which question

The lesson from the table is that no single graphic carries the whole picture. The cone answers "where might the center go." The wind probability product answers "will I feel it." The surge and rainfall products answer "will water hurt me." Search for the storm's name and read at least the public advisory and the wind probability graphic together.

Timeline of a typical advisory cycle

Intermediate advisories exist because landfall timing matters to evacuation decisions. When a storm is near land, the extra 5 a.m. and 5 p.m. updates can shift a landfall window by hours, which is enough to change when a bridge closes or a shelter opens. If watches or warnings are active for your area, check all six daily products, not just the two you happen to see.

Practical actions and thresholds

What you should do depends on how far you are from the forecast track and how soon conditions arrive. The following steps scale with proximity.

Within 72 hours of potential tropical storm-force winds, finalize your plan: know your evacuation zone, fuel your vehicle, and stock water at one gallon per person per day for at least three days. When a hurricane watch is issued, typically 48 hours before tropical storm-force winds arrive, secure outdoor items and charge devices and backup batteries. When a hurricane warning is issued, typically 36 hours out, complete preparations and be ready to leave immediately if told to evacuate. If local officials order evacuation for your zone, leave when told. Storm surge is the leading cause of hurricane deaths, and roads can flood before the center arrives. Monitor the wind-speed probability graphic. If your location has a 30 percent or greater chance of tropical storm-force winds, plan for those winds regardless of the center track. Do not rely on the cone's edge as a safety line. If you are near or inside the cone at any lead time, treat the storm as a credible threat to your area.

The thresholds above are planning triggers, not official rules. Local emergency managers set evacuation zones and timing, and their instructions override any general guidance. Follow the county or national emergency agency for your area.

Common misconceptions

The most persistent error is treating the cone as the storm's footprint. The cone is a statistical envelope around the center, and hazards routinely extend far outside it. A second error is assuming a weakening storm is harmless. Weakening refers to peak winds, but a decaying cyclone can still drop 6 to 12 inches of rain and produce dangerous surf and rip currents for days.

A third misconception is that the "latest" position equals the "current" position. Advisories carry valid times, and the storm has moved since the fix was taken. A fourth is that forecast models running far from the official track prove the official forecast is wrong. Models disagree; the official forecast is a calibrated synthesis, and its cone already accounts for typical error.

The counterintuitive point deserves emphasis. Storms in the eastern Pacific often track away from land and dissipate over cool water, so most named storms never threaten anyone. But the few that curve toward Mexico or send moisture northward can cause deadly inland flooding far from the coast. The name on the map matters less than the hazard product attached to your location.

Limitations and what this cannot tell you

This article cannot give you Lowell's current coordinates, because any number would be obsolete by publication. It also cannot predict landfall, because that depends on forecasts issued after this was written. What it can do is make you a competent reader of the official products, which is the only reliable way to answer the question at any given moment.

Position and intensity forecasts carry irreducible uncertainty that grows with lead time. Beyond five days, track error is large enough that specific location forecasts are not meaningful. Intensity forecasts remain the weakest link in tropical meteorology, especially near rapid intensification and eyewall replacement. No public product resolves those uncertainties for an individual location.

Read the NHC public advisory and discussion for Hurricane Lowell directly, and pair them with your local weather service and emergency management agency. The discussion explains the forecaster's reasoning, including why confidence is high or low. That reasoning, not a static coordinate, is what should drive your decisions.